Humans cannot foresee the future, leading to imperfection and uncertainty.
Within this uncertainty, humans, who naturally seek stability, come up with an interesting idea.
To minimize potential future losses and secure stability, the method of trade was devised.
In the East, it’s rice, and in the West, corn… the most fundamental yet crucial food industry, starting from agriculture.
Agriculture is the oldest and most essential industry in human history.
However, regardless of its long history, agriculture is vital for survival and is fraught with immense instability.
To farm, one needs fertile land and crops to plant, along with supportive labor.
But no matter how good the land or excellent the seeds, or even how diligent and strong the workers are,
the most crucial factor determining farming success ultimately relies on the sky.
In other words, the unpredictable fate called weather.
Of course, there’s the concept of average climate, which allowed for the development of large cities in agriculturally prosperous regions.
However, even average climates don’t always behave nicely.
If the temperature varies slightly, or if there’s too little or too much rain, it can wipe out a year’s worth of hard work in an instant.
Just one bad day out of 365 can deal an irreparable blow, embodying the enormous gamble that agriculture represents.
Historically, there have been countless instances where sudden climate changes ruined farming and led to the downfall of states.
Moreover, not just poor harvests but also bumper crops can severely impact those working in agriculture by lowering grain prices, further heightening agricultural uncertainty.
In response to this instability, countries have tirelessly developed astronomy and cultures like religion to mitigate uncertainties.
Yet even today, with advanced technology to predict weather, completely eradicating agricultural uncertainty remains elusive.
Agriculture is an essential but risky industry.
Relatedly, merchants developed a trading method to minimize this uncertainty.
The method was simple.
Imagine a farmer cultivating crops here, and a merchant buying and transporting those crops to market.
The farmer is unsure how this year’s harvest will go but wants a stable income.
Conversely, the merchant aims to maximize profit from selling these crops.
In such circumstances, the merchant proposes something to the farmer.
The merchant suggests purchasing all of this year’s crops at a rate slightly below the average market price.
In this case, regardless of the harvest quantity, the farmer secures stability by ensuring a fixed income.
If problems arise and the yields are poor, they can minimize their risk because they’ve already received their payment.
On the other hand, the merchant might incur losses if the yields are poor but stand to gain whatever difference there is if the harvest is good.
The farmer sacrifices future profits for security, while the merchant risks uncertainty for potential gains.
This method aims to operate agriculture more stably.
Through contracts and trust, one side seeks maximum stability while the other seeks maximum profit. This trade method plays a significant role in modern agriculture and, over time, expanded its scope to encompass all resources, growing into a vast financial market.
And now…
People refer to this originally stability-focused trading method as:
Futures trading.
Initially started for stability, ironically, it now represents a trading market underpinned by horrific risks that can drag many modern investors down to hell.
As mentioned, it started as a way to provide stability to those producing resources like agriculture, but as the concept of investment—more accurately, gambling—began to creep in, it transformed into a dangerous mire that could drag countless people to rock bottom.
Originally a market created to pursue profit while bearing inherent risks, the futures market is defined by timelines for production and distribution, mathematically rendering the concept of holding onto your investment impossible, resulting in volatility far exceeding even stock markets.
While a 40-60% increase could qualify as a windfall in stocks, futures can yield 400-600%, yet a single failure might land the producer deep in debt.
Futures trading exemplifies the very peak of high risk and high return.
However…
I didn’t need to worry much about the risks posed by futures trading.
All risks ultimately arise from the uncertainty of an unknowable future.
As a reader of the original work, I knew the direction of events quite well; I could minimize the risks of futures trading, proven by the immense wealth I amassed during my time as a Paladin.
Despite lacking initial capital, I managed to gain recognition as a powerful figure within the city.
And now…
I am the heir of Bohemia and a key figure maneuvering the Heretic Alliance, equipped with resources far surpassing those of the past.
With Bohemia’s already rich economy and the support of allies, coupled with the strength of the Dragona Empire,
if I were to orchestrate a “futures” deal, the profits would undoubtedly be immense.
“If I can secure such funding, it’s possible to flip an unfavorable situation. Although things may seem quiet now, there could be someone waiting to turn the tides if the support flows in.”
Of course, there was no need to tell the Emperor of the Dragona Empire all the intricate details.
Even if I were to mention this, whether the Emperor, being of this time, would truly understand was uncertain, and there was a risk of creating an adversarial impression.
While gaining full support would be ideal, getting too greedy and overly verbose could easily backfire.
Moreover, having been expelled from the Paladin Order for making strange money in the past, it was crucial to maintain a degree of secrecy as it was a kind of trade secret.
Thus, I maneuvered to establish this actual futures trading agreement with the Dragona Empire under the guise of “support,”
and Estelle, unaware of the detailed circumstances, relayed my words directly to the Emperor.
Certainly, pulling in another country gave it a credible storyline, and given that the Emperor had already decided on support, she accepted my plan without much suspicion.
At least, that was my perception.
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